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Marked by Volatility, Concentrated Solar Power Market To More Than Double by 2020
May 2, 2012
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At the moment, the market for concentrated solar power (CSP) systems is paused -- not stopped, according to a recent report from Pike Research. The sector has been marked by volatility since the technology began to experience a revival in 2004, and that up-and-down movement is likely to persist through the remainder of the decade as the price of rival photovoltaic modules continues its dramatic decline. According to Pike, worldwide annual revenue for CSP systems will increase dramatically, from $2.1 billion in 2012 to $5.1 billion in 2013, before dropping again in 2014 and beginning a gradual recovery. By 2020, the firm forecasts revenue will reach $4.8 billion.
Under a more favorable forecast scenario, revenue could surpass $8.6 billion in 2020.
"Solar PV is not only more attractively priced at the moment than CSP technology, but it also has an established track record that makes it more appealing to investors," says senior analyst Peter Asmus. "Yet, CSP may overcome these disadvantages by reducing costs as a result of larger scale and new technology models. The most promising opportunity in the near term is to link CSP with thermal energy storage, thereby increasing the value of clean electricity in a cost-effective way that solar PV cannot replicate."
Specifically, CSP providers have begun devising hybridized power plants that combine concentrated solar with fossil fuel generation, a model called Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC). At the same time, utility-scale energy storage capabilities are enabling expanded electricity production by dispatching stored heat in the evening hours. Overall growth in the CSP market depends on a range of factors including project bankability/financing, policy issues, cost reductions in technology, cost competitiveness with PV, and expanded electricity transmission capacity.
The report, "Concentrated Solar Power", provides an analysis of technology issues and policy trends driving CSP adoption in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, India, and China. An Executive Summary is available for free download on the firm's website.
Source: Pike Research
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